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This is the fifth of five predictions for 2008, expanded from the short
form generated on short notice as
described here.

Prediction

The short version:

There will be massive, newsworthy, churn in the
social-networking space, as Facebook creaks under the strain of its own size
and growth, and nimbler competitors find chinks in its armor.

Told Ya So

This one came true within a week of me making it:
Scoble got erased.
Yes, there are multiple sides to that issue. But it’s a hot issue
nonetheless; since Facebook and its competitors are trying to become the
experience of the Internet for a huge number of people, minor disturbances in
that weather system quickly become major issues.

Let me crank that prediction up a bit: The Scoble imbroglio will be just
one of many Social Networking Scare stories this year.

Hold on a second… there’ve been two already since that one blew up.
From Toronto,
serious
legal-disclosure issues and from Fortinet,
insecure
Facebook apps.

The Lesson Is

Leave a gap, as I did, between making your predictions and expanding on
them. Some of them might already have come true.

…more

One of the pied-pipers of social networking is making some
predictions about where the most talked about technology of 2007 is
heading in the new year. In his blog post, Marc Canter proclaimed, “All software is about people and now all software will have social features in it.”

His company, Broadband Mechanics,
has been a pioneer in developing a open social platform. Marc
optimistically predicts that in 2008 the social networking will get its
act together in a more open way, such as via Google’s (GOOG) OpenSocial APIs:

…more

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